SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #13
FOR: TYPHOON “#KarenPH” (SARIKA)
TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING
ISSUED AT 5:00 PM, 15 October 2016
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 8 PM today)
“KAREN” HAS ACCELERATED FURTHER AND POSE A SERIOUS THREAT OVER AURORA PROVINCE.
•Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 500 km diameter of the typhoon.
•Possible occurrence of storm surges along the coastal communities of areas with TCWS #3 and #2 and flashfloods and landslides over all areas with TCWSs.
•Expected to make landfall over the Aurora province tomorrow early morning.
•Fisherfolks and those with small seacrafts are advised not to venture out over the northern seaboard of Northern Luzon and over the Northern and Eastern seaboards of Samar.
•TCWS elsewhere are now lowered.
Location of eye/center: At 4:00 PM today, the eye of Typhoon “KAREN” was located based on all available data at 205 km East of Infanta, Quezon(15.0°N, 123.5°E).
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of up to 130 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 180 kph.
Forecast Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 22 kph.
•24 Hour(Tomorrow afternoon): 185 km West Northwest of Dagupan City, Pangasinan
•48 Hour(Monday afternoon):665 km North of Pagasa Island, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR)
•72 Hour(Tuesday afternoon): 995 km Northwest of Pagasa Island, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR)
•96 Hour(Wednesday afternoon):1,420 km West Northwest of Pagasa Island, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SIGNAL
TCWS 3 (121-170 kph Expected in 18 hours): Pangasinan, Northern Zambales, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Aurora, Northern Quezon including Polilio Island, La Union, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya and Quirino.
•Heavy damage to high–risk structures;
•Moderate damage to medium-risk structures;
•Light damage to low risk structures
•Increasing damage (up to more than 50%) to old, dilapidated residential structures and houses of light materials. Majority of all nipa and cogon houses may be unroofed or destroyed
•Houses of medium strength materials (old, timber or mixed timber-CHB structures, usually with G.I. roofing’s); some warehouses or bodega-type structures are unroofed.
•There may be widespread disruption of electrical power and communication services.
•Almost all banana plants are downed.
•Some big trees (acacia, mango, etc.) are broken or uprooted.
•Dwarf-type or hybrid coconut trees are tilted or downed.
•Rice and corn crops may suffer heavy losses.
•Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off; some large trees blown down.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) > 14.0 meters Storm surge possible at coastal areas
TCWS 2 (61-120 kph Expected in 24 hours):Ilocos Sur, Southern Isabela, Mt Province, Ifugao, Rest of Zambales, Pampanga, Bulacan, Bataan, Rizal, Metro Manila, Rest of Quezon, Camarines Norte and Catanduanes.
•Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures;
•Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;
•No damage to very light damage to low risk structures
•Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
•A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
•Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
•Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
•Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards
•In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken.
•Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.
•Rice and corn may be adversely affected.
•Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 4.1-14.0 meters Storm surge possible at coastal areas
TCWS 1 (30-60 kph Expected in 36 hours): Ilocos Norte, Abra, Kalinga, Rest of Isabela, Southern Apayao, Southern Cagayan, Oriental Mindoro, Cavite, Batangas, Laguna, Marinduque, Camarines Sur, Albay, Including Burias Island.
•Very light or no damage to low risk structures,
•Light damage to medium to high risk structures
•Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
•Twigs of small trees may be broken.
•Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next weather bulletin to be issued at 8 PM today.