Bagyong “Carina” has intensified further and threatens Cagayan area.

•Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 500 km diameter of the Severe Tropical Storm.

•Fisherfolk are alerted against rough to very rough seas over the northern and eastern seaboards of Luzon.
•Areas under TCWS #1 and #2, MIMAROPA, the rest of Central and of Northern Luzon and the provinces of Quezon and Camarines Norte are alerted against moderate to heavy rains which may trigger flash floods and landslides.
•TS “CARINA” is expected to make landfall over Northern Cagayan this afternoon and will exit Ilocos Norte late tonight.

Location of eye/center: At 10:00 AM today, the center of Severe Tropical Storm “CARINA”was estimated based on all available data at 160 km East Southeast of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan(17.4°N, 123.2°E).
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of up to 95 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 120 kph.

Carina bagyo Bagyong Carina has intensified further and threatens Cagayan area.

Forecast Movement: Forecast to move Northwest at 20 kph.

Forecast Positions:
•24 Hour(Tomorrow morning): 230 km Northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte
•48 Hour(Tuesday morning): 820 km West Northwest of Itbayat, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR)
•72 Hour(Wednesday morning): 1,395 km West Northwest of Itbayat, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR)


TCWS #2(61-120 kph Expected in 24 hours)
Luzon: Isabela, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Apayao, Mt. Province, Ifugao, Kalinga, Abra and Cagayan including Babuyan Group of Islands.

Impacts of the wind:
•Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures;
•Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;
•No damage to very light damage to low risk structures
•Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
•A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
•Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
•Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
•Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards
•In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken.
•Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.
•Rice and corn may be adversely affected.
•Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.

Wave Height: (Open Sea) 4.1-14.0 meters.
Storm surge is possible in coastal areas.

TCWS #1(30-60 kph Expected in 36 hours)
Luzon: Batanes Group of Islands, Benguet, La Union, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Pangasinan, Nueva Ecija and Aurora.

Impacts of the wind
•Very light or no damage to low risk structures,
•Light damage to medium to high risk structures
•Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
•Twigs of small trees may be broken.
•Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.

Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next weather bulletin to be issued at 2 PM today.

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